Breakage in Horse Racing is another word for STEALING
- Anthony Marrero
- Oct 25, 2016
- 2 min read
Those of us who love the game often say that horse racing is the greatest gambling game of skill ever created. But in 2015, gambling on horse racing – when compared to other games of skill that are thriving – is becoming one of the worst games for customers and non-rebated gamblers who are charged retail takeout rates. This is due, in part, to prohibitive pricing (high takeouts), difficult multi-leg hard-to-hit exotics, the proliferation of jackpot bets, and the complexity of analyzing the data from past performances. This has caused even the most experienced gamblers to have a much more difficult time just breaking even.When most of us learned the game and fell in love with racing, we had a choice of wagering to win, place, or show, along with two exactas per day with maybe one daily double. In the late 1970's, it was much easier to make it through the learning curve, simply because we cashed more tickets. We became life-long customers by enjoying the great experience of solving the puzzle that is each race, and of cashing tickets at a rate that at the very least gave us the impression that we had a good chance to win.The industry has reached a point where it must “sink or swim” based on a model without alternative gaming revenue like slot revenue, or Instant Racing, or online poker. It is evident that there will come a day when those revenues will decrease or go away completely. Because California racing does not receive alternative gaming revenues, I believe California is ground zero in the fight for the future of horse racing. California racing must proceed on a sustainable model based on earning revenues directly and indirectly from gambling on horse racing alone. I would argue that an optimal pricing experiment is significantly more important in California precisely because there is no alternative gaming revenue.The best way to begin an optimal takeout experiment in California is to eliminate breakage on win, place, and show (currently 15.43% takeout) and to lower exacta takeout to 16%. I believe that this experiment makes sense for a couple of reasons.For decades, “breakage” for most experienced horseplayers has been synonymous with “stealing”.
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